Another Crystal Ball

If you're trying to figure out trends in construction, I suggest you check out the American Institute of Architects' (AIA) Architecture Billings Index. It is what it says it is: a measure of the amount of work architects are doing. And it's a pretty good measure. Last July it was about 60; now it's about 40, the lowest since 9/11.

The only reason for architects not to be designing is that nobody's hiring them to. Which means no one's planning anything that needs designed. Which means the construction pipeline is cranking shut, and it will take major effort to reopen it.