Friday, November 27, 2009

Oh Yeah, Real Estate's Booming Again!

So, October new home sales climbed more than expected in November, and mortgage rates are once again at historic lows.  Let's break out the champagne!

Or not.  First, the increase was still pretty pathetic when compared to a healthy market.  Second, the banks are getting money at effectively 0% from the Fed, which means there is upside to any mortgage rate they use; too bad the Fed can't keep it going, so that bit of rocket fuel is bound to go away.  And third, the entire increase can be attributed to buyers rushing to lock in the tax credit or to funds making bulk purchases of vacant new construction.  The former is unsustainable, and the latter just means there will be case lot sales of houses come Spring as the funds try to flip and take their profits, which means the market will be driven down just as people start to list their houses for the peak season.

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