Russia 24.06.2023, Noon, What We Know

1) Yesterday Prigozhin said he was fed up with the Russian Army attacking Wagner Group and intended to overthrow the Ministry of Defense. FSB announced what must actually have been going on for several months, namely a criminal investigation of Prigozhian.

2) Last night Putin gave FSB free rein to deal with Prigozhian. Putin then flew out of Moscow. The destination was ostensibly St. Petersburg, but the flight turned off all tracking on takeoff and undoubtedly went to Valdai. That Putin flew rather than taking the armored train on his private rail line would indicate a certain urgency.

3) Earlier today Wagner Group captured Rostov-on-Don and headed up the M4 for Moscow, meeting little resistance. Wagner Group has since captured Voronezh. At least one of Wagner Group's original positions yesterday was adjacent to a GU battalion, but the GU did not interdict.
4) While Wagner Group has supplies and anti-aircraft weapons, it does not have air or logistical support. From this it is reasonable to conclude Wagner Group must attain quick successes with resulting defections and civil unrest.

5) Yesterday a possible propaganda campaign for Prigozhian may have been to claim he was trying to remove the incompetent and criminal generals so Russia could have an honorable peace. With Putin having acted, Prigozhian must aim higher, perhaps manipulating those generals to state publicly they were only following orders that came directly from the top of the government. This might undermine the popular image of Putin and his circle.

6) Given FSB's brief from Putin, if Wagner Group reaches Moscow, it must immediately seize FSB headquarters along with the Ministry of Defense.

Update 1300: Prigozhian has agreed to stand Wagner Group down.  One of two things will now happen: A) Wagner Group will be sandbagged; B) Putin will purge the Ministry of Defense and General Staff.  Whichever happens, it will not preclude the other from eventually happening.